I cannot fucking fathom the concept of going into a bathroom to look at people when I’m desperate to get in and out as fast as humanly (or even badger-ly considering how much I waddle) possible.
I cannot fucking fathom the concept of going into a bathroom to look at people when I’m desperate to get in and out as fast as humanly (or even badger-ly considering how much I waddle) possible.
Yeah, I’m saying that the 3000 number is not a reasonable assumption for the actual number of instances of harassment / assault per day in the US. The majority of instances of go unreported. Especially when it involves someone accusing a woman of being trans, unless its an outright police get involved situation its probably not going to be reported.
It wasn’t how common it is, it’s how plausible it is. And yes I believe it is plausible.
The most liberal estimate that I could find on how often violent crimes go unreported is 60%. So, to be extra generous let’s say there are 10,000 violent crimes per day. There’s still millions of bathrooms and hundreds of millions of people.
And, while we’re making a point of it. 80% of violent crimes are committed by men. So bring that 10k back down to 2k for the actual potential sample here.
You think one out of every 2000 violent crimes committed by women are violent TERFs beating up non-trans people that they thought were trans in public bathrooms? Because that’s what it would have to be to be once a day on average.
Or, maybe you think my liberal overestimate of unreported violent crime is wrong? What percent do you think goes unreported?
The odds of this are on par with a set of identical twins being struck by lighting at the same time while on different continents. Impossible? No. Implausible? Very much yes.
It depends on what they define violent crimes as. I am genuinely 100% certain that on a daily basis yes there are cases of women being accused of being trans. Look at the news recently, the incidence rate of this happening is rising.
And yes some of those instances would escalate to harassment / assault. I couldn’t give you hard statistics as its very specific and there is a lack of data on it. Its biased by the fact that some women who are accused may not be willing to admit that.
Regardless, yes I definitely believe it is plausible and I also believe that the statistics youre citing almost certainly do not account for these specific circumstances. Like i do not believe that information is of use to this discussion as harassment is rarely reported and assault isn’t always reported either. I don’t have hard numbers on that.
I don’t necessarily dispute that it would be a pretty rare or incredible occurrence, but in terms of plausability, TERFs are highly likely to accuse someone of being trans (much more likely than the average person), and the inevitability that one would accuse another one of being trans seems well within the realm of possibility to me.
You keep talking about harassment, but that’s irrelevant to the point I’m making. All my statistics were about assault. And you avoided stating a number of assaults you think go unreported. Pick a number? Is it 90% of assaults go unreported? 99%? Because even at those numbers, the odds are still shockingly low that this could happen.
And we’re talking about an altercation where two women beat each other to the point that both are hospitalized. This would be newsworthy on its own, and is certainly not a daily occurrence. To add to that that the motive was “both thought the other was trans,” and that doesn’t set off your “probably ragebait” buzzer? And we’re not talking about a hypothetical here. It was ragebait.
And let’s be doubly clear, this has never happened in real life. And I’d bet you any sum of money that it won’t in the next 100yrs. Plausible doesn’t just mean that you can imagine it happening. I can imagine a world where I’m piloting a mechsuit to work every day in the next decade. Just cause I can imagine it doesn’t make it plausible.
As I stated before, the amount of unreported crime is not relevant to the question of “is this situation plausible”. I mentioned it in the beginning because the statistic you provided is essentially irrelevant to the topic and inaccurate anyway. I provided my justification for this in my previous comment.
TERFs are more likely to accuse someone of being trans than any other population of people. Let me clarify that in specific words. It is orders of magnitude more likely a TERF would accuse someone of being trans than any other demographic of person.
Women have been harassed and assaulted because they were believed to be trans in just the past couple months. Here’s two examples for you. You might want to like actually have a clue what youre talking about before you start spouting off whatever. .
The question of harassment is pertinent because nearly every kind of homophobic or transphobic assault is precipitated by harassment. Women have been assaulted over these accusations. It is not out of the realm of plausability that a woman would be assaulted on account of being accused of being transgender.
Your comparison about a mech suit is wild. You do not possess the technology to have such a thing. TERFs exist and accuse people of being trans every single day. TERFs are extremists and have violent views towards trans people. The people they generally accuse of being trans are women. There are gender non-conforming TERFs.
It is not unthinkable that a TERF could accuse another TERF of being trans, that much has absolutely happened before. It is also not unthinkable that a TERF would assault someone they thought was trans who was using the women’s bathroom.
Ergo, not at all implausible. Again, rare, yes. Implausible, no.
I think at the end of the day what we are disagreeing over is the word plausible.
If we both picked a random address somewhere in North America, is it plausible that we would happen to pick the same one? It’s possible, certainly, but vanishingly unlikely. Unlikely to the point that, if we did, I would presume something other than random chance was to blame. That is what I’m contesting here.
I agree that TERFs are orders of magnitude more likely to assault someone than the average person. I agree that assault is proceeded by harassment. I agree that women have been assaulted in recent memory over this very issue.
I agree with everything you’ve said. But none of that makes it “plausible” in the sense that it happening is something I would reasonably expect to happen. The statistical odds of it happening are relevant, in that they are so remote as to make the alternative explanation that it’s satire a vastly more plausible explanation. So much so that, when I read the headline, I immediately knew it was satire, and find it concerning that people didn’t.
Sure, if I orchestrated two TERFs who might be mistaken as trans to go into the same bathroom at the same time, this might be a plausible outcome. But that orchestration is the required step. The scenario where they do go into the bathroom at the same time is the absurd part, and what makes this clearly satire.
And, as an aside, I disagree with you about the mech suits. We do have mechanical exoskeleton prototypes. They’re not very practical for 99% of use cases, so they aren’t really used. But it’s not unfathomable that I could get one and ride it to work sometime in the next decade. It’s certainly not plausible, but it’s something I could make happen if I tried really hard to force it probably. Much like the thing we’re talking about.