I think at the end of the day what we are disagreeing over is the word plausible.

If we both picked a random address somewhere in North America, is it plausible that we would happen to pick the same one? It’s possible, certainly, but vanishingly unlikely. Unlikely to the point that, if we did, I would presume something other than random chance was to blame. That is what I’m contesting here.

I agree that TERFs are orders of magnitude more likely to assault someone than the average person. I agree that assault is proceeded by harassment. I agree that women have been assaulted in recent memory over this very issue.

I agree with everything you’ve said. But none of that makes it “plausible” in the sense that it happening is something I would reasonably expect to happen. The statistical odds of it happening are relevant, in that they are so remote as to make the alternative explanation that it’s satire a vastly more plausible explanation. So much so that, when I read the headline, I immediately knew it was satire, and find it concerning that people didn’t.

Sure, if I orchestrated two TERFs who might be mistaken as trans to go into the same bathroom at the same time, this might be a plausible outcome. But that orchestration is the required step. The scenario where they do go into the bathroom at the same time is the absurd part, and what makes this clearly satire.

And, as an aside, I disagree with you about the mech suits. We do have mechanical exoskeleton prototypes. They’re not very practical for 99% of use cases, so they aren’t really used. But it’s not unfathomable that I could get one and ride it to work sometime in the next decade. It’s certainly not plausible, but it’s something I could make happen if I tried really hard to force it probably. Much like the thing we’re talking about.