• jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
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    8 months ago

    Biden won Michigan by 154,188. All 100,000 uncommitted could stay home and it wouldn’t change the results. It would just be way tighter than necessary.

      • Telorand@reddthat.com
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        8 months ago

        The point is nobody can know that with any certainty. All these preliminary graphs are helpful to campaign strategists, but do you know the number of Uncommitted voters who will ultimately hold their nose and vote for Biden anyway? Or who will change their mind completely? I certainly don’t.

        Sending a message in the primary ≠ doing the strategic thing in the general.

        • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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          8 months ago

          The point is nobody can know that with any certainty.

          Well we still have to make decisions and decide strategy in the face of uncertainty. Its a yes or no question that I asked, and you can answer it with a yes or a no.

          Do you think Biden can stick with his current approach to Gaza and Israel and win the general election?

          • Telorand@reddthat.com
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            8 months ago

            There’s a third answer: I don’t know. That’s my answer.

            If your plan is strategy, it doesn’t matter what my opinion is. Assume the worst outcome and work as if you can change it.

              • Telorand@reddthat.com
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                8 months ago

                To answer otherwise would be lying. “I don’t know” is the only appropriate answer when you don’t know.

                Your dislike of uncertainty is not my problem.

                • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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                  8 months ago

                  Its not a dislike, its a recognition that in the real world, we have to make decisions in spite of uncertainty.

                  In the real world, we have to make decisions based on incomplete information all time.

                  • Telorand@reddthat.com
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                    8 months ago

                    Sure, but that doesn’t mean this is one of those times. Giving my opinion on if Biden’s current trajectory will tank his chances is tantamount to nothing. And so I say again:

                    I. Don’t. Know. I am not obligated to abstain from intellectual honesty just to satisfy your curiosity.

      • MdRuckus @lemmy.world
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        8 months ago

        Are you forgetting Trump lost 35% in Michigan??!! He got 65% and you’re worried about 13% uncommitted? Trump lost 3x that number in the primary. My bet’s on Joe.

        • NoneOfUrBusiness@kbin.social
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          8 months ago

          Republicans are more zealously loyal than Democrats. They’ll vote for Trump in the general election because as horrible Biden is he doesn’t advocate for hunting the homeless for sport.

          Edit: Also in the Republican primary did Trump run uncontested? If not then the comparison in the first place has no basis in reality.