There it is again: Faster Than Expected.

We seem to be pretty terrible about accounting for feedback loops when we create prediction models.

“Summed up, the industry’s treadmill is speeding up and this will make production growth more difficult than it was in the past,”

And I am darn happy about that! Still shamelessly talking about growth, that’s just crazy.

And yet, they’re still drilling and fracking like mad.

Effective life of a fracking well is about three years. It can be refracked a couple more times, each with a lower yield. That sweet spots are developed first exacerbates the problem.

Seems we weren’t that good at predicting capacity of a well in the first place then.