NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.
Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.
Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.
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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.
Every economists was predicting recession a few months back. They have an accuracy rate less than horoscopes
Tbf, the act of predicting a recession can change the outcome, since the economy is just people reacting to things with money.
If everyone is expecting their houses to fall down from thin walls, so they start adding panels to their walls, suddenly the newly sturdy walls arent falling down anymore.
Right except people aren’t lemmings. Just because I hear some talking head say how he thinks there will be a recession in a month doesn’t mean I cut all spending.
An individual is not a lemming, no. But people? People are scared, stupid, lemmings who will follow the crowd, almost every time.
We’re social creatures, designed to work in groups. The downside (or upside I guess) is that people do follow the crowd.
If people followed the crowd vaccination rates would be 100%. Remind me again what they really are. People, real freaken people, make bad decisions, they don’t listen to experts, they expert shop, they go against the grain, they go against what they are told they should do. They are brave, cowardly, stupid, smart, ruthless, and nice.
This is why economist is bull crap. They build these models assuming the very worst about humanity and demand we all act that way. So of course if your base assumption is that humans blindly trust anyone who calls themselves an expert and can only think short term they would sell everything if they hear a whisper of recession.
I look at the numbers for investing not what some moron on TV shooting stuff has to say.
https://youtu.be/gUkbdjetlY8?si=zaw0AV3QvbN6PXYv
Remember this? Nah bet you don’t.
… What? Did you click on the wrong comment?
No.
You wanna try your comment again, then, and make it relevant to the comment youre clicking on?
Or was the comment being gibberish intentional?
I don’t see what is confusing. You made the claim that the act of predicting a recession can cause a recession and stated a mechanism. I pointed out that predictions of recessions are rarely accurate and the mechanism doesnt work the way you described.
Yeah, see, this is why I think you clicked on the wrong comment.
I said that an economy is a result of humans acting, and that the act of stating a recession is coming is enough to change peoples actions to either cause or prevent a recession.
You then launched into some unrelated nonsense about being lemmings.
Do you need help finding the comment you meant to respond to?
This isn’t even remotely true, why is it being upvoted?
Maybe because it is true and no one wants to hear government economists bullshit about how everything is fine when everything is not fucking fine.
So sick of economist lying crap. Telling us we can’t have universal healthcare and we can’t get rid of student loan debt but we have to give free money to banks and trade with countries that have slavery.
But it’s simply untrue.
Here is goldman sachs saying, over a year ago, that a path to a soft landing is hard but feasible. Here is an economist, from over a year ago, predicting that the chance of a soft landing was going up. Here are 3 economists writing for the Harvard business reviewing saying, back in Februrary, that the chances of a soft landing were good and calls for a recession were premature.
The whole point of the fed’s policy on the rates was to tamp down on inflation while at the same time avoiding a recession. They are, of course, economists. At this point we look like we have good odds to pull of what they were intending to pull off.
I don’t know where you get your information from, but if you thought no one thought was predicting a soft landing until a few months ago, well it’s safe to say you don’t really pay much attention to these things because plenty of economists have been predicting it likely, or going to happen, even for a long time. I’ve only heard a handful of economists even come close to virtually assuring a recession.
A thousand psychics making predictions every day and one being correct proves nothing.
A thousand psychics making predictions every day and one being correct proves nothing.
Untrue, as it proves, without a doubt proves that:
Every economists was predicting recession a few months back.
is untrue.
This is the advantage of basing your opinions off the facts, tas he facts actually support your claims.
Can’t hear you over the sound of thousand of government economists saying everything is fine
The fed is a government economist, at least in some regard, so even that claim falls pretty empty.
But notice how I was able to back up my claims with facts, you just moved the goal posts, without admitting fault, to a new unsupported claim.
You’re not clever, you’re a joke.
Any witches I can follow on Mastodon who provide stock analysis???
No idea. Just buy and hold index funds and you will be fine.
I am unemployed and have been for many months. I have never had issues finding a job, but finding one lately has been impossible. I know of 3 others in the same boat as I. I think that a recession is inevitable at this point. Lucky for me, I have other sources of income. I did have to drastically cut back spending, however.
There is definitely something going on lately. I’m always looking for better jobs on indeed, professional recruiting services etc, trying to improve my situation.
In the last 4 months its been seemingly impossible to even get a response, and I know I’m more than qualified for these positions I’m applying to, and I’ve never had an issue before, even during severe economic downturns.
Same.
This is a nightmare scenario for me. What are the other sources of income, if you don’t mind me asking?
Website advertising and subscription revenue for websites I have owned for years. Spouse income as well.
Here’s my gripe with economists. Even if this wasn’t true, wouldn’t be in the best interest of the economy to lie about it so the market doesn’t get spooked and end up doing things that would make inflation worse?
What other ‘science’ has that nifty feature in it?
You can make money on the economy going up or down, so there’s generally economists predicting both. There’s also a lot of economists that love to be the one to predict a recession, so they pretty much always predict one.
Regular medical science, it is called the placebo effect. It only works a bit. Not like you are going to regrow a limb, more like if you had a 40% of getting better on your own you now have a 50%.
Truth is economists can’t predict shit and recessions happen based on numbers not based on feelings. We can’t click our heels together and wish our way to a better world.
A lot of the “scientists” that get laughed out of their field but get their Netflix “documentary” deal seem to use this neat trick.
They’re particularly good at starting with a conclusion then shoehorning in a bad analysis with uncompelling evidence.
My initial thoughts exactly.
Economists predict that now that the rich and ruling class have had a chance to get even rocher even faster, the rest of us will be allowed to catch our breaths just long enough to avoid sweeping reforms and revolutions the next time they pull this bullshit!
They found the sweet spot between oops we broke it again and these poor people seem to be actually accumulating savings
Nah we’ve just become too dependent
Wow we went through nearly 3 years of recession start tomorrow and now it’s not even going to happen. Even weather reporters are better.
Weather doesnt read the weather report and change itself in response.
People read economics reports and spend differently in response.
Start giving the northern wind a newspaper, and you will see the weather report falter.
Just in time for a tumultuous election
The poor and middle class are sowing, the rich are reaping
"After a historic run-up in inflation, Americans are now starting to see something they haven’t in three years: deflation,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“To be sure, deflation—that is, falling prices—is largely confined to appliances, furniture, used cars and other goods. Economywide deflation, when prices of most goods and services continuously fall, isn’t in the cards.”
“But economists say goods prices likely have further to fall, which will ease inflation’s return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, perhaps as early as the second half of next year.”
Does this mean rent will get easier to pay, or am I still boned?
Well, according to the article:
Of course, economists are only expecting price increases to slow, not to reverse, which is what it would take for prices for groceries, haircuts and other things to return to where they were before inflation took off during 2021.
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Yeah, that crafty Biden pulled the inflation lever in the Oval Office. It’s right next to the gas prices lever.
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They also do not control inflation so that it goes down in election years. The economy is nowhere near that simple.
Not to mention that the majority party in the house has done nothing but fight with each other and try to impeach Biden.
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Okay? What’s your point? Biden and congress still don’t control inflation.
