I’m being cautiously optimistic here, but I have to admit prison time is probably a long shot. Justice Merchan didn’t want to jail him on his ten instances of contempt, and I can understand wanting to avoid politicizing an already unprecedented trial and handing the defense reason for appeal. Given convicted felon Donald Trump’s behavior however, my personal prediction is something like house arrest and possibly a supervised release schedule. Total bullshit, but I do think Merchan has been playing the long game so that whatever sentence he hands down is airtight and holds up under appeal.