Will Chris win?
Looks very unlikely there will be any other result besides National/ACT majority. Without having to worry about other coalition partners, this will probably be our most right-wing government of the MMP era. A lot of the National caucus are pretty right-wing at heart (rather than Labour, where a lot of them are pretty centrist at heart). So ACT will probably get more wins out of the coalition agreement than you might expect. NACT should be able to keep the government running smoothly as it was under Key, meaning they will be odds on to win a second and probably third term.
Which means cost of living, inequality and environment/climate issues are all set to get substantially worse.
And that last sentence is what the election should have been all about.
It was about that, but Labour were terrible at convincing the NZ public that they were better than National on those issues.
Labour have done a horrendous job. They deserve this. But it will Royaly fuck the poor.
Not looking forward to the next 3 years.
Im just reminding myself that regardless of who is at the helm, things aren’t going to get better in the next 3 years. NZ has lacked decades of investment and so small that we are at the wim of Aus, Europe, China and US. National may give our country a bit of strength, but it won’t be stronger people and I doubt they will be looking ahead.
Rolling back environmental policies and landlord tax will be pretty bad for all of us. I don’t think strength is anything we require. Nobody is worried of an armed New Zealand.
Clarification - economic strength, (business) investment, population and tech. Soft power, not hard power, but saying that I’m in Defense studies and the asia-pacific region is having significant concerns with hard power and we have a massive EEZ. Moot point though, back to mine.
Our country needs significant financial investment - we love this country but we are soo far behind in soo many ways. Labour has tried to offset things like cost of living, housing, health but there is soo much to do.
Business in my opinion. My very very controversial opinion. Business is a cancer. It’s the worst thing to happen to humanity since money was invented.
Business looks to squeeze everything to profit the few. Maybe stop looking to greed and start getting the basics. Housing food security.
You can rape pillage and destroy the planet for profit. Won’t help.yhe majority though.
But that’s just my incorrect opinion
Thats disappointing as I don’t think national gives a shit at all. I suspect the tax cuts with the current cost of living got national through, but it does nothing to move the country ahead.
I suspect nothing about what National offered was what did it, other than the fact they were not Labour. I fully believe that the majority of people vote without knowing what policies they are voting for.
Oh God, are we going to get our Trump?
We get the government we deserve.
I found that too. Any political conversation I had this cycle were basically: “Winston for the shit stir” or “Lifelong (insert party) voter”. Nobody I spoke to really knew any policy.
I’ve been mentioning the cool Act policies in passing to people I talk with. No one knew that they want to remove all building standards, repeal the act that sets our carbon reduction targets, or allow employers to call everyone contractors to get around employee protections and so they don’t have to pay annual/sick leave, etc. I’ll be watching the coalition negotiations with interest.
Yup - “oh why vote for those losers” yet when I asked what they disagree with they have nothing. I feel like alot of nationals vote was “i want something different”, a tax cut or lifetime members.
Woo fucking hoo.
Gotta love that for some reason a bunch of people have voted against their best interests. Think it’s time to reevaluate giving people decisions about their lives.
It does not end well.
I disagree- they voted in their short term interest with tax cuts and blaming labour for the state of things. Our country is lacking soo much, and this was people just wanting something to take the edge off now.
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Unfortunately when you are feeling that defeated $520 a year is absolutely worth it.
Take the edge of in what way ? Pretty short sighted if a couple months helps but then national policies kick in and things get markable worse. But who knows aye
Oh, it is shortsighted. But people can’t think about the future if they are struggling now and it is something we all do. 2k tax cut gives me something now, 100,000 homes in 10 years I have to wait for.
Which is probably why we are in this situation. We don’t look to the future. Gotta start thinking big picture. Planets fucked. Need some drastic changes or this is humanities end.
But I get yah
Im curious what way you voted - I didn’t vote any of the big 4 because their focus is the 3 year reelection (and act/green is effectively a lab/nat vote). Don’t need to answer, just speaking out loud and happy to see others are on the same page.
Unfortunately I’m eligible to vote( resident not citizen) but I would vote green.
Labour or green are an attack on national. Only way to fight national is to push up labour.
Two party systems are a big issue.
Do you actually think Labour would have built those houses?
Labour - no. But pushing things in a direction can facilitate construction. I’ve been seeing huge number of subdivisions come in, rezoning and growth up but it takes time and the global situation has been kicking everyone’s ass and there is little any NZ govt can do about it.
I disagree, a lot of people seem to think having equal rights to any other NZer is in their best interests, and I think that’s a reasonable point of view.
Explain
No.
Fair
Cool, we get to watch an national/act government tonight, a no vote in Australia overnight and a genocide tomorrow
Playing apocalypse bingo over there?
Seems that way
Add 1.5° exceeded. Ill go have a shot for you, then going to bed for a 15 hour workday tomorrow.
Yikes, I’ll think I’ll have one too.
Mate, that’s a long day
This is what our generation does. It is what it is, we just got to get up and deal while hopefully making it easier for the next one… or at least one less fire for them to put out.
Fair enough, I respect that. I think what gets me is it doesn’t have to be this way but yeah, you gotta take it day by day.
It doesn’t - but we bitch at the boomers for all they didn’t do and we should walk the talk. Make it harder for us to make it easier for the next.
Don’t forget the Polish elections tomorrow! It has all the drama of a modern election!
Wait for the special votes. Back in 1999 - The Greens won 7 extra seats from special votes alone.
- A special voter
they have historically done very well from overseas votes who don’t have to pay tax here
That’s a cynical take
That’s a bitter take.
Like a whiny spoiled child who doesn’t get their way.
Well fuck
No party in the MMP era outside Labour/National had ever won more than 1 general electorate seat (i.e. besides the Maori seats) before this election. Now it looks like Act will win 2 and Greens will win 3… that seems like a significant moment.
I hope NZ wins, but Chris has it in the bag. Unlike that prick Chris.
Edit: not calling Hipkins a prick, but with the result it looks it.
Even in his electorate, he didn’t win with anywhere near the majority he has had previously. His stretch as PM has really hurt his popularity.
I think labour is reaping the consequences of protecting the country during covid. They did an amazing job and now its over the country forgot how much their choices did.
Pretty sure it’s all the other dropped balls they tried or barely tried to juggle.
Haven’t followed Hipkins too much, but I have believed Jacinda is a great person and empathic leader, but an average politician. Exactly what we needed in covid.
I think it’s more to do with the long list of failed policies outside of Covid measures, and the racist policies being proposed by Greens and TPM.
I saw Maori party policy - was it 50% Maori in ceo roles? I’m Maori and its laughable.
I’ve tried to find this policy online but I haven’t been able to. Would you be able to provide a link?
Sorry, had a look through and was incorrect (hence the question mark).
-
allocate 50% of police, court and corrections funding to Maori authorities.
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allocate 50% of new state houses to Maori.
-
I genuinely think they do their cause more harm than good.
So do I - make no mistake Maori were repressed and disadvantaged, but you can’t throw a policy out and expect it all to change.
Funnily enough there is probably a chance Chris loses
Fuck
It’s looking like Blue Chris will win, a disappointing result for Red Chris.
Serious though, this is a huge shift from last election, almost a 25% drop. And it looks like Winnie will be out in the cold, thankfully.
It’s the least inspiring election I’ve ever seen. Literally had no idea who was the least worst option stepping into the booth
That’s the heart of it right there. There was simply no right choice.
I voted against TPM more than anything else really.
If you look at the cumulative votes graph, you’ll see there are a lot less voters this election. It makes me wonder what the shift would look like if everyone voted (or, what are the key demographics for people who don’t vote).
Younger people usually much less likely to vote, and also tend to vote for the left, especially Greens. So yeah, it would make a huge difference most likely.
Greens have done surprisingly well so far though, although largely at Labour’s expense, it seems.
They’ve done well, but I think they would really want to be in the 13-15% range. Still, looks like they’ll pick up 2-3 electorates, which would be huge.
I think co governance and Marama’s outburst really hurt them. Justifiably so.
Maybe, but I doubt that made much difference to people who were realistically actually going to vote for them. This will likely be their best result ever.
It’s amazing actually, the number of comments I’ve seen online from supposed green party supporters saying they don’t like them having a race quota, don’t support other aspects of their policies etc, but will still vote for them, is incredible.
Having said that, they do have some solid policies.
Which is quite disappointing consider the massive investment the future requires. Uni, health, general education and environmental funding just aren’t there and we are the ones who will be affected.
Damn, 600k down… nearly 25%
Do you think the old fucker will retire?
At this point, I think he’ll be a politician until the day he dies, he’s got nothing else. I don’t see him retiring in the next three years.
This is his life. He loves it, he’ll die before he gives it up.
Wow it sucks that TOP didn’t do better; but what sucks even more is that NZ Loyal got 1.15%; the crazys were out in force this year.
Its seems like a lot of area seats were lost because left wing votes were split between labour and greens which allowed national to snag it.
Yeah, FPP for the electorate vote is kinda bullshit. Ranked preference would be way fairer
Absolutely needs to be STV, just like some (many? Most?) Local body elections.
I was about to try and point out that a party vote for greens is actually a party vote for a greens+labour coalition.
Then realised that you’re referring to electorate votes.
Derp.
Hmm, there does seem to be a reasonably strong break towards Labour in the later counted votes. It could mean National end up with as low as 38% (especially after specials). If TPM win 5 seats, there’d be 122 MPs with overhang. That could mean National/Act will fall just short of a majority and require support from NZF.
Which would be making a bleak situation comically worse. The ol’ Kingmaker ends up wielding a lot more power than the 1-ish% influence the people meant for him to have.
So going on how things changed as voters were counted, it would appear that the early voting broke more for Nat / Act, and then the day of voting broke for Lab / G. NZF & TPM stayed relatively consistent throughout the night. This makes sense, blue-collar working people are somewhat more likely to vote Labour than National, and are less likely to have time to get to one of the fewer advance voting posts, than the typically white-collar / retired voters who are somewhat more likely to vote for the right.
The vote totals have now tightened up considerably on whether National can form a government with just Act; such that I am interested to know how many overseas / special votes there might be, and if any of them have been counted yet. If there’s enough of them, and they tipped more Labour/Green than National then it might be enough to pull another vote from the right to the left, and given Parliament has an overhang this term Luxon would need to pick up the phone to someone to get an outright majority, at least on confidence & supply.
Another big talking point for me is that one in every twenty voters this election has no representation in Parliament at all due to the threshold requirements for minor parties.
Yeah that last point is fascinating.
Have you guys at least imported the democracy sausage tradition from the West Island, yet? It was super sporadic the last election I asked.
No matter the result, voting is never a total loss if you have at least had this.
I’ve never been at a voting place with a sausage sizzle.
Then again, I’ve always worked at a voting place (except this year because children).
