Didn’t we just do this? I swear, we just did this:
As usual, national polls are useless. We don’t have national elections, and as others pointed out, the poll doesn’t even say what Newsweek says it says. Numbers after the jump.
Now… ALLLLL that being said… Last time I did this, Harris hit 270 exactly. First time this year any candidate hit the magic number.
Didn’t we just do this? I swear, we just did this:
As usual, national polls are useless. We don’t have national elections, and as others pointed out, the poll doesn’t even say what Newsweek says it says. Numbers after the jump.
Now… ALLLLL that being said… Last time I did this, Harris hit 270 exactly. First time this year any candidate hit the magic number.
AZ - Toss Up. Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
NV - Toss Up. Tie, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
NM - Harris +5, +8, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
GA - Toss Up, 5 separate polls show tie votes.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
FL - Trump +6, +13, +14
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
NC - Toss Up, Harris +3, Trump +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
PA - Toss Up, Tie, Harris +1, +4, Trump +1, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
MI - Tie, Harris +2, +3. 3rd parties 0 to 1%, no impact.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
WI - Harris +1, +2, +3, +4, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
MN - Harris +5, +6, +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Plotted on the map:
As usual, PA is a must win. If Harris takes it, that’s it, she doesn’t need anything else.
Failing that, NC or GA + any 1 other state. AZ + NV alone is not enough, that drops her right at 268.
For Trump, he has to win PA to stay in, that gives him 238, from there he needs 32 more. So NC + GA. Or NV + AZ and either NC or GA.
Minimum 1 state for Harris to win, PA. Also a 2 state win of NC or GA + 1 other. Max would be 3 states. AZ, NV + 1 other.
Minimum 3 states for Trump to win (PA, GA, NC), could be as many as 4 of the 5 outstanding (PA, AZ, NV, + GA or NC)