Idk why everyone is assuming this will make him win. He’s still a fascist. People who weren’t voting for him before aren’t going to start now just because he was shot. People don’t like him for a reason. If people liked him he wouldn’t be shot at lol
People who weren’t voting for him before aren’t going to start now just because he was shot
The decided voters are pretty much irrelevant. They made up their mind a long time ago. The issue is the swing voters.
Unfortunately, we have evidence that surviving an assassination attempt leads to a boost in approval. Reagan surviving an assassination attempt led to a big jump in his approval rating:
"In the wake of the assassination attempt, Reagan’s approval ratings jumped – providing a new baseline that propelled his legislative agenda forward and helped translate to his broad-based re-election. "
Generally, surviving an assassination attempt gives you a boost in support. That is a pattern that has been repeated often. Another recent example is the attempted assassination of Bolsonaro in Brazil. He’s often called Brazil’s Trump. This case could be different, but odds are it’s not going to result in undecided voters saying “hmm, the shooter was probably right, I’ll side with him”.
The situation in the US was a disaster even before this happened. IMO this can only make things worse.
This. It could have an energizing effect on his voting base, especially with the way the old bastard never shuts up about anything. His mouth is a faucet of incendiary idiocy; surviving this is like smashing it off the sink.
Generally speaking, the economy tends to be the biggest driver for voting trends, and “the economy” is doing fine by most measures. Yeah, things are expensive, but they’re not getting expensive faster, stocks are pretty stable, and borrowing rates are stabilizing and even coming down a little.
By all historical signals, that should give Biden a bit of a boost, and what he needs to do to win is successfully blame Trump for inflation (i.e. inflation from COVID relief) and other COVID-related market problems. Point out that he pushed for keeping borrowing rates low, which would’ve made inflation so much worse. If the average person understands that Trump’s policies were instrumental in causing the problems we see today (and most economic indicators have a few years lag), then Biden should get a boost.
But to do that, Biden needs to string two coherent sentences together, and he seems to be struggling at that…
the issue aren’t those two groups of people. The issue is the third. Those who weren’t going to vote before, which is usually around 30% to 60% of the country.
Now, of those who weren’t going to bother to vote, about 55% to 70% of them would vote for a Democratic president.
However, the 30% to 45% of those remaining - those are the ones who will be most likely ‘energised’ by this and convinced to vote. That extra turn out could turn it into a Republican landslide.
I wouldn’t be so sure. Back in 2018 when Bolsonaro (also a very extreme fascist) was running for president in Brazil, someone also attempted to kill him and very nearly succeeded, and it’s pretty much agreed that the failed assassination attempt gave him a massive poll boost and helped him win. I personally had the unfortunate experience of dealing with people here who were previously undecided but afterward decided to vote for Bolsonaro because they saw him as a vicitm trying to be silenced.
Considering how US elections are severely lopsided to depend on a couple handful of states that demographically generally aren’t affected by the risks of fascism and therefore generally see American elections as a harmless sport, there’s a very real possibility they’ll see Trump as a “martyr” trying to be silenced and throw their vote behind him.
It also seriously doesn’t help that Biden’s just been making far too many gaffes while Trump came off like a “defiant strongman” over this. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m extremely pessimistic about this being anything but a massive win for Trump.
It only serves to play into the rhetoric. It empowers the base. The victim complex becomes justified and like for like retaliation is only fair and what they deserve. The silent majority is once again being silenced!!!
/S
It’s not hard to think of a bunch of ways this plays into a fascists hand.
The prediction markets and gambling odds for the race have all swung drastically after the attempt. If Biden was going to win, betting on it now would net you a pretty good chunk of cash. Biden isn’t even predicted to have a good chance of winning the popular vote at the moment.
But people that were on the fence no longer will be. They will 100% swing his now. It’s 110% over. Especially after bidens mishaps over the last couple weeks i.e. debate, calling zelenzky putin as well misnaming many others. It’s over
Idk why everyone is assuming this will make him win. He’s still a fascist. People who weren’t voting for him before aren’t going to start now just because he was shot. People don’t like him for a reason. If people liked him he wouldn’t be shot at lol
The decided voters are pretty much irrelevant. They made up their mind a long time ago. The issue is the swing voters.
Unfortunately, we have evidence that surviving an assassination attempt leads to a boost in approval. Reagan surviving an assassination attempt led to a big jump in his approval rating:
"In the wake of the assassination attempt, Reagan’s approval ratings jumped – providing a new baseline that propelled his legislative agenda forward and helped translate to his broad-based re-election. "
https://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/03/30/avlon.reagan.shooting/index.html
It helped that it was a re-election and our economy was experiencing a huge upswing due to the tech boom at the time from Silicone Valley.
Trump’s situation is very different. But couple this with Biden’s recent public, let’s say faux pas. And we do have a recipe for disaster brewing.
Los Angeles? But seriously…
Generally, surviving an assassination attempt gives you a boost in support. That is a pattern that has been repeated often. Another recent example is the attempted assassination of Bolsonaro in Brazil. He’s often called Brazil’s Trump. This case could be different, but odds are it’s not going to result in undecided voters saying “hmm, the shooter was probably right, I’ll side with him”.
The situation in the US was a disaster even before this happened. IMO this can only make things worse.
This. It could have an energizing effect on his voting base, especially with the way the old bastard never shuts up about anything. His mouth is a faucet of incendiary idiocy; surviving this is like smashing it off the sink.
While I love that analogy, thinking about faucets and Trump in the same sentence just has me thinking about his water pressure rants.
Generally speaking, the economy tends to be the biggest driver for voting trends, and “the economy” is doing fine by most measures. Yeah, things are expensive, but they’re not getting expensive faster, stocks are pretty stable, and borrowing rates are stabilizing and even coming down a little.
By all historical signals, that should give Biden a bit of a boost, and what he needs to do to win is successfully blame Trump for inflation (i.e. inflation from COVID relief) and other COVID-related market problems. Point out that he pushed for keeping borrowing rates low, which would’ve made inflation so much worse. If the average person understands that Trump’s policies were instrumental in causing the problems we see today (and most economic indicators have a few years lag), then Biden should get a boost.
But to do that, Biden needs to string two coherent sentences together, and he seems to be struggling at that…
Who tf is still a swing vote though in the States. If your head is stuck that far into the sand, are you even going to hear about Trump getting shot?
the issue aren’t those two groups of people. The issue is the third. Those who weren’t going to vote before, which is usually around 30% to 60% of the country.
Now, of those who weren’t going to bother to vote, about 55% to 70% of them would vote for a Democratic president.
However, the 30% to 45% of those remaining - those are the ones who will be most likely ‘energised’ by this and convinced to vote. That extra turn out could turn it into a Republican landslide.
I wouldn’t be so sure. Back in 2018 when Bolsonaro (also a very extreme fascist) was running for president in Brazil, someone also attempted to kill him and very nearly succeeded, and it’s pretty much agreed that the failed assassination attempt gave him a massive poll boost and helped him win. I personally had the unfortunate experience of dealing with people here who were previously undecided but afterward decided to vote for Bolsonaro because they saw him as a vicitm trying to be silenced.
Considering how US elections are severely lopsided to depend on a couple handful of states that demographically generally aren’t affected by the risks of fascism and therefore generally see American elections as a harmless sport, there’s a very real possibility they’ll see Trump as a “martyr” trying to be silenced and throw their vote behind him.
It also seriously doesn’t help that Biden’s just been making far too many gaffes while Trump came off like a “defiant strongman” over this. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m extremely pessimistic about this being anything but a massive win for Trump.
It only serves to play into the rhetoric. It empowers the base. The victim complex becomes justified and like for like retaliation is only fair and what they deserve. The silent majority is once again being silenced!!!
/S
It’s not hard to think of a bunch of ways this plays into a fascists hand.
The prediction markets and gambling odds for the race have all swung drastically after the attempt. If Biden was going to win, betting on it now would net you a pretty good chunk of cash. Biden isn’t even predicted to have a good chance of winning the popular vote at the moment.
This is the internet, why haven’t those men clinging to trump been photoshopped into leia bikinis yet.
(nothing’s gonna go viral & fuck up his reichstag plans faster than lampoonery)
He will win because his opponents are fucking useless
But people that were on the fence no longer will be. They will 100% swing his now. It’s 110% over. Especially after bidens mishaps over the last couple weeks i.e. debate, calling zelenzky putin as well misnaming many others. It’s over