If you choose the first option, $1 million will be immediately added to your bank account, however if you choose the second option, starting from today everyday your chances of winning $1 billion increase by 0.005%. If you accept your chances will start at 0% and keep increasing.
How often are you likely to win the billion? Or is it cumulated probability of winning? Would you ever be able to win a second billion after the first one?
I’ll assume cumulative probability and never a second billion.
0.005% would take 20,000 days to certainly win, that’s less than 55 years. It would take less than a year to reach 1% probability, every year it increases by 1.825%.
Those are good long term odds, but not amazing. While I could get today a million.
With a million I can live comfortably, if I’m very careful maybe even leave my job. With a billion I can reshape politics in my country. Have a significant impact on society. Keep some 10M to myself and play minigod with the rest…
Considering I’m okay financially and quite like my job, I’ll take the chances and wait for the billion to drop, hoping to not die sooner.
There’s a draw once a year. So yes cumulative.
Can only win the billion once.
That wording 100% says to me that you get a try every day to win the billion. Looking at it like you would in a legal case, it stands as an every day chance since a year timeframe was never mentioned in the original prompt.
Sure, the million would be nice, but In today’s economy “cheap” houses that used to be 100-200k near me are going for nearly half a mil.
The billion is the clear answer to me. Short of some extremely bad luck, you’re getting that billion in a year or few. You gain 1.825% per year which doesn’t seem like much, but you’re getting that ~2% chance every single day.
A few years of living like I already am for a statistically guaranteed (but unpredictable) billion dollars is a win to me.